MOCA-09: IAMAS - IAPSO - IACS 2009 Joint Assembly


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JOINT Symposia

SESSION

TITLE

J01

Observations of High Latitude Climate Change

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IACS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Matthew Lazzara (IAMAS), Shelley Knuth (IAMAS), David Reusch (IAMAS), Michael Town (IAMAS), Matthew Sturm (IACS), Peter Haugan (IAPSO)

Invited Speakers:

Mark Serreze, National Snow and Ice Data Center, USA

Eric Steig, University of Washington, USA

David H. Bromwich, Ohio State University, USA

Description:

This symposium aims to bring together observational descriptions of the high latitude regions in the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere from 200 years ago to the present. Topics from both polar regions as well as from in situ and space based observing platforms are the basis for this symposium. New observations collected via recent efforts, including the International Polar Year (IPY), International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE), and other ongoing long-term observational and paleo-climate efforts related to climate change at the poles, are solicited. In addition, presentations dealing with observational and data assimilation methods are welcome. Sample topic areas include ice core observations, mass balance investigations (surface, airborne or satellite based), satellite observations (e.g. altimetry, clouds, icebergs, etc.), ocean monitoring studies (e.g. ARGO, AON, etc.), polar surface observing networks (e.g. Automatic Weather Stations, ground-based GPS, etc.), and data syntheses from reanalysis.

J02

Polar Regional Weather and Climate Modelling (and Global Relevancy)

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IACS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Annette Rinke (IAMAS), John Cassano (IAMAS), David Holland (IACS), Andrey Proshutinsky (IAPSO)

Invited Speakers:

John Turner, British Antarctic Survey, UK

John Walsh, International Arctic Research Center, USA

Description:

The coincidence of rapid change in Arctic climate (extreme 2007 decline in sea ice and recent unprecedented warming) and enhanced observational activities during the IPY offers hope that these changes will be documented in great detail. However, in order to reproduce variability and changes in the Arctic and Antarctic at time scales from synoptic to decadal, explain them and predict their future dynamics, models of the Arctic and Antarctic climatic systems are needed both to reproduce past and present states and to predict future transformations. It is difficult to construct, understand, and explain a “global” picture based on observations, without including modelling. It is also problematic to employ models for prediction of climate without knowing model errors and their uncertainties. This session invites both numerical and observationally based contributions: (i) enhancing our understanding of the physical processes regulating variability of environmental conditions (atmosphere, cryosphere, and ocean) in the Polar Regions, (ii) assessing models performance and their uncertainties using results of the Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs), (iii) developing new models and analytical approaches allowing more accurate reproduction of interaction in the system atmosphere-ice-ocean or identifying teleconnections showing role of the Polar regions in the global processes and vice-versa; (iv) improving parameterizations of the specific processes in the atmosphere, ice, or ocean. Discussions associated with data assimilation and reconstructions/reanalysis of the climatic systems for the Arctic and Antarctic are welcomed as well.

J03

International Polar Year – Early Results

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IACS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Michel Béland (IAMAS), Ian Allison (IACS), Karen Heywood (IAPSO)

Invited Speakers:

Liz Thomas, British Antarctic Survey, UK
Alex Orsi, Texas A&M, USA
Jean-Claude Gascard, LOCEAN, France
Hayley Hung, Environment Canada
Aurélie Bouchard, MeteoFrance
Thor Erik Nordeng, Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Steve Ackley, University of Texas, USA
Bob Bindschadler, Goddard Space Fligfht Centre, NASA
Jon Ove Hagen, University of Oslo, Norway
James Drummond, Dalhousie University, Canada

Description:

This symposium provides the first opportunity after the official end of the observing period of the International Polar Year 2007-2008 (1 March 2007 to 1 March 2009) to report new results from IPY projects. The session will particularly highlight interdisciplinary results addressing the IPY themes of assessing the present environmental status of the polar regions; quantifying and understanding environmental changes in polar regions; and better understanding the links between the polar regions and the rest of the globe. Contributions on advances towards implementation of sustainable observing systems of the earth system in polar regions are also welcome.

J04

The Contribution of Greenland and Antarctica to Fresh Water Input to the Ocean and Sea Level Change

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IACS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Éric Rignot (IACS), Jonathan Bamber (IAMAS), Thierry Fichefet (IAPSO)

Invited Speakers:

Ralf Greve, Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Japan
David Holland, New York University, USA

Description:

Key uncertainties remain regarding the future reaction of climate, ice sheets and the carbon cycle to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Paleoclimatic reconstructions offer a framework against which climate, ice sheet and carbon cycle models can be tested. This session aims at strengthening the interactions between these various communities.

J05

Arctic Ocean Circulation and Sea Ice: Present and Future

Sponsoring Associations: IAPSO/IACS

Convenors:

Göran Björk (IAPSO), Marika Holland (IAPSO), Bruno Tremblay (IAPSO), Manfred A. Lange (IACS)

Invited Speakers:

James Overland, NOAA, Seattle

Mary-Louise Timmermans, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA

Bert Rudels, Finnish Institute of Marine Research

Description:

The Arctic Ocean has undergone large changes during the last decades including several pulses of warmer inflowing Atlantic water, huge area extent variations of the low salinity surface layer and a general decline in summer ice extent, with an extreme in 2007 when about 40% of the basin was ice free in August. In this perspective it likely that further changes will occur in the future, and may give a dramatic impact on marine life and human activities, such as exploration of natural resources and merchant shipping. Another type of change has been an intensified research activity with a seemingly ever increasing data stream from research ships, satellites, drifting platforms and moorings, including an extra peak during the International Polar Year 2007-2008.There has also been an increased number of theoretical studies utilizing observations and models. This ongoing research provides surely a much better knowledge of the present ocean circulation and sea ice conditions but it opens also possibilities to make realistic projections into the future. This session has a relatively broad theme and invites both numerical and observationally based contributions: (i) enhancing our understanding of the present ocean circulation and sea ice conditions in the Arctic (ii) enhancing our understanding of the future ocean circulation and sea ice conditions in the Arctic.

J06

Abrupt Changes in the Climate System

Sponsoring Associations: IACS/IAMAS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Andreas Schmittner (IACS), Andrew Bush (IAMAS), Richard Wood (IAPSO)

Invited Speaker:

Description:

Paleoclimate proxy records clearly show that the climate system does not always change gradually. Abrupt changes have been documented both at high and low latitudes and involve all components of the climate system: ice, ocean, atmosphere and biosphere. Theoretical studies and model simulations suggest that non-linearities and thresholds can explain some of the observed abrupt changes. For future predictions, however, these findings pose a major challenge. Which systems are vulnerable to abrupt changes in our warming planet?What have been the impacts of past abrupt climate changes on physical and ecosystems? Is it possible to predict abrupt climate changes, or identify conditions under which they are likely? What could be the societal impacts of future abrupt climate changes? These are some of the questions we want to address in this session.

J07

Comparison of Projected Future Climate Change to Warm Intervals in Earth History

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IAPSO/IACS

Convenors:

Alan Haywood (IAMAS), Arne Winguth (IAPSO), Eric Wolff (IACS)

Invited Speakers:

Jerry McManus, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, USA

Paul Valdes, University of Bristol, UK

Harry Dowsett, US Geological Survey

Bette Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA

Description:

IPCC (2007) scenarios for future climate change suggest that by the later part of this century global annual mean temperatures may increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C. This magnitude of temperature rise has not been recorded since the Neogene. Paleoclimate records derived from various proxies provide insights into past global and regional climatic and environmental changes. Moreover, these proxies are of relevance to calibrate and validate comprehensive Earth system models in order to improve the understanding and prediction of future climate evolution. This session will highlight a variety of paleoclimatic topics over different timescales and temporal resolutions, in order to assess climate impacts associated with anthropogenic perturbations. It will focus on intervals in the last 100 million years of Earth history that are believed to have been warmer than the present. These include the Last Interglacial, Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 11, Pliocene warm intervals, the Mid-Miocene Climate Optimum and Climate Transition, the Early Eocene, PETM and ELMO events, and the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum. Contributions providing insights into these intervals of time, based on new data, data synthesis or modelling techniques will be welcomed, especially those which link recent paleoclimate studies to future climate change by comparing global, regional or local responses reconstructed in the past to projections for the future.

J08

Ice Cores in Paleoclimate

Sponsoring Associations: IACS/IAMAS

Convenors:

Valérie Masson-Delmotte (IACS), Kumiko Goto-Azuma (IACS), Elisabeth Schlosser (IAMAS)

Invited Speakers:

David Bromwich, Ohio State University, USA

David Fisher, Geological Survey of Canada

James White, University of Colorado, USA

Description:

Ice cores offer unique archives of multiple indicators of past glaciological, climatic and environmental changes. Measurements conducted in borehole and ice cores can provide crucial information regarding the dynamics of polar ice sheets and put constraints on their past extension. The wealth of geochemical analyses which can be performed on ice cores make it possible to reconstruct past variations locally, but also regionally (at the location of moisture and aerosol sources) and globally (well mixed greenhouse gases), as well as to document key climatic forcings linked with natural and anthropogenic aerosols and with solar activity. This symposium will be dedicated to the paleoclimatic information derived from ice cores. This includes results from new ice cores drilled in various latitudes and documenting climate variability over various time scales. We also welcome presentations of innovative methods in order to broaden the spectrum of glaciological, climatic and environmental parameters derived from ice cores; these methods may be linked with analytical innovation, or may rely on new modelling approaches in order to improve the physical understanding of the deposition and archiving processes. We especially encourage contributions about meteorological aspects of ice core interpretation, such as precipitation origin, moisture transport to the drilling locations, general atmospheric circulation in past and present climates, moist deposition of chemical components, etc. Finally, this session will be also open for the comparison between ice core records with other paleoclimatic archives such as marine sediment or speleothem records, and for the comparison between glaciological and climatic models and ice core results.

J09

Interannual and Interdecadal Climate Variability and
Predictability with Special Sessions on Chaos and Nonlinearity in the Climate System Dedicated to the Memory of Professor Edward N. Lorenz

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IACS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Clara Deser (IAMAS), Paul Kushner (IAMAS), Klaus Dethloff (IACS), Shoshiro Minobe (IAPSO)

Invited Speakers:

Ichiro Yasuda, University of Tokyo, Japan

Judith Perlwitz, CIRES, USA

Shang-Ping Xie, University of Hawaii, USA

Ben Kirtman, University of Miami, USA

Fei Fei Jin, University of Hawaii, USA

Richard Seager, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, USA

Tim Palmer, ECMWF, UK

Yochanan Kushnir, Columbia University, USA

Description:

Although climate predictions are demanded on increasingly fine regional scales, the climate system is dominated on interannual-to-decadal timescales by large-scale patterns that control regional climate. These patterns couple distinct components of the climate system and disparate regions of the globe, and as a result remain a challenge to simulate and to understand. This symposium aims to synthesize our current knowledge of and our ability to predict interannual-to-decadal variability. We solicit papers that elucidate the mechanisms of interannual to decadal variability and lend insight into how coupled climate interactions - atmosphere-ocean-sea ice, troposphere-stratosphere, biosphere-climate, chemistry-climate, etc. - give rise to this variability.

The symposium will include sessions on important sectors of interannual-to-decadal variability:

Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors
Atlantic sector (including North America/Europe)
Southern Hemisphere (including Antarctica)
Arctic sector

as well synthesis sessions providing

Perspectives on our theoretical understanding of interannual-to- decadal timescale variability.
Perspectives on climate prediction on interannual to decadal timescales via simulation with comprehensive climate models.

In light of Professor Edward N. Lorenz's fundamental contributions to our understanding of nonlinear chaotic dynamics and of climate system dynamics, MOCA-09 will dedicate part of this symposium to the theme “Chaos and Nonlinearity in the Climate System” in Professor Lorenz's honour.

This part of the symposium will highlight recent advances in the analysis of chaotic systems and applications to climate. It will also seek to develop new questions of theoretical interest that arise from observations and models of climate dynamics, with an emphasis on nonlinear aspects of climate, such as nonlinear feedbacks and the effect of nonlinearity on predictability.

J10

Climate Sensitivity, Climate Feedbacks and Regional Responses to Global Forcing

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IACS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Natalia Andronova (IAMAS), Peter Jansson (IACS), Hans W. Linderholm (IACS), Andrew J. Weaver (IAPSO)

Invited Speakers:

George Boer, Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, Canada
Kirsten Zickfeld, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada
Alex Hall, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA

Description:

Understanding and predicting changes in the climate system is a scientific goal for avoiding unwanted and abrupt changes. The climate sensitivity, defined as a change in the global near-surface temperature due to doubling carbon dioxide, serves as a measure of global climate change and is widely used for climate model intercomparison, for evaluation of the climate system feedbacks and for estimating economical impacts of climate change. Recent frustration of policy makers with a persistent range of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity estimates given in the sequence of the IPCC reports has questioned the usefulness of this climate change measure for policy application. As the climate sensitivity is an important milestone for understanding climate system forcings (anthropogenic and natural) and feedbacks on different spatial and temporal scales, it challenges the climate theory community to provide clear and adequate scientific information on how uncertainties in the climate sensitivity are translated into the changes on regional scales, and how information on the regional scales can be used to constrain climate sensitivity estimation. This requires a close conversation between climate modelers, observatories and stakeholders considering that human economic activity is an important driving force in evolution of the climate system. This symposium calls for papers that further advance knowledge of global and regional climate feedbacks related to the uncertainties in climate sensitivity for prediction of future climates, and that address how the climate sensitivity concept evolves along with gathering more observational and model data on the evolution of the climate system for policy applications in reducing human stress on the environment.

J11

Climate Model Intercomparison

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IACS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Vladimir Kattsov (IAMAS), Vladimir Kattsov (IACS), Neil Holbrook (IAPSO)

Invited Speakers:

René Laprise, Centre ESCER, Université du Québec à Montréal, Canada

Peter Gleckler, PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA

Andreas Oschlies, Leibniz Institute of Marine Science (IFM-GEOMAR), University of Kiel, Germany

Description:

The ability of a model to accurately simulate observations is a critical test of model integrity, performance and potential predictive skill. This is one important method of model evaluation. Within the climate modelling community, model intercomparison has also proved to be a very valuable method of model evaluation, and is evidenced by many successful model intercomparison projects that have been developed since the late 1980s [see http://www.clivar.org/organization/wgcm/projects.php]. This symposium invites papers from any climate model intercomparison discipline (and not necessarily only from participants of the various listed international programs), examining the nature and causes of output differences among the models, addressing different verification approaches, developing metrics for objective discrimination of climate models, etc.

J12

Regional Climate Modelling

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IACS/IAPSO

Convenors:

René Laprise (IAMAS), Jens Christensen (IACS), Markus Meier (IAPSO)

Invited Speaker:

Gudfinna Adalgeirsdottir, Danish Climate Centre

Description:

Increasingly Regional Climate Models (RCMs) evolve towards Regional Earth System Models, coupling interactively the atmospheric, oceanic and land components. Contributions are invited on model development including the coupling of components of the climate system, such as regional ocean and sea ice, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycles. Contributions are also invited reporting on coordinated model intercomparison projects, including time-slice simulations performed with global Atmospheric General Circulations Models of uniform high resolution or variable resolution and with nested limited-area Regional Climate Models. Contributions reporting on methodological and validation issues, assessment of the skill and added value for current climate simulations and projections of climate changes are particularly welcome.

J13

Biogeochemistry and Climate

Sponsoring Associations: IAPSO/IACS/IAMAS

Convenors:

Denise Smythe-Wright (IAPSO), Leif Anderson (IAPSO), John P. Burrows (IAMAS), Melissa Lafrenière (IACS)

Invited Speakers:

Martin Heimann, Max Plank Institute, Jena, Germany

Douglas Wallace, Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Kiel, Germany

Julie LaRoche, Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Kiel, Germany

Description:

Global climate change is being driven by anthropogenic modification of the atmospheric composition primarily by the release of long lived greenhouse gases by the combustion of fossil fuels but also by the generation of short lived greenhouse constituents, resulting from air pollution and changes in land usage. However the response of the terrestrial and oceanic biospheres to climate change is highly non linear and inadequately understood. Measurements of atmospheric composition provide an early warning of the likely changes and Climate chemistry models are being developed to provide accurate prediction of change. Ocean observations have revealed a warmer and less alkaline ocean during the last decades and models tell us that this trend will likely continue and that the ocean will become stormier and less nutrient rich by the end of this century. How this will impact upon ocean biogeochemistry and its interaction with the atmosphere is unclear. Current research is addressing these important themes as we enter the next phase of the anthropocene. This symposium will focus on all aspects biogeochemistry and including climate and ecosystem model development. We particularly welcome contributions on carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide measurements and their regional and global trends, carbon dioxide uptake, ocean acidification, carbon export, eutrophication/nutrient depletion, impacts of dust deposition due to storms and trace constituent measurements and the fluxes of short lived precursors.

J14

Ocean-Ice-Atmosphere Boundary Layers and Interactions

Sponsoring Associations: IACS/IAMAS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Günther Heinemann (IACS), Donald K. Perovich (IAPSO), Ian Renfrew (IAMAS)

Invited Speakers:

Jörg Hartmann, Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine
Research, Bremerhaven, Germany

William Neff, NOAA/OAR, USA

David Bromwich, Bird Polar research Center, USA

Description:

In polar regions, boundary layers and their interaction with the surface can be studied under unique conditions. Investigations can be performed for a variety of boundary layer phenomena, such as thermal internal boundary layers, katabatic winds, stable and strong convective boundary layers under near-ideal conditions. In addition, the feedbacks between the atmosphere and the surface, such as snow physics processes, polynya formation processes, sea ice production and bottom water formation represent key processes for the polar climate system. The representation of these processes is a major challenge for current weather and climate models.This symposium wants to bring together researchers working in the areas of high-latitude boundary layer processes and related sea ice, ocean and snow processes. Contributions are welcome dealing with observational studies, studies using numerical models (including parameterizations and verification), and studies of chemical processes, particularly under the aspect of climate change.

J15

High Latitude Terrestrial Processes, Hydrology, and Interactions with the Atmosphere

Sponsoring Associations: IACS/IAMAS

Convenors:

John Pomeroy (IACS/IAHS), Richard Essery (IAMAS)

Invited Speaker:

Description:

In high latitudes, the state of the land surface snow, ice and water resources are strongly controlled by complex interactive processes that govern exchange between the climate, snow, lake ice, permafrost and hydrology. These processes are subject to intense investigation as part of the International Polar Year studies of freshwater supply and cold regions processes. Interactions such as those processes mediating climate, snow accumulation, snowmelt, sublimation, soil moisture, soil thermodynamics, evaporation, and vegetation are of particular interest. In order to consider future changes in hydrology and water resources due to anthropogenic climate change it is necessary to understand these processes. However, the nature of these interactions, and our ability to model the relevant processes, are currently very limited. It is expected that both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change will result in significant changes to the state of high latitude cryosphere and hydrology, however, due to the complex processes and their cumulative effects it is difficult to predict with confidence what direction and with what celerity these changes will occur.
Contributions are be solicited on, but not limited to, the following:

the the interactions between surface, snow and atmospheric processes in high latitudes,
snow processes and hydrology,
the effects of changing Arctic vegetation on land surface processes, snow, hydrology and the atmosphere,
the effects of climate change on high latitude hydrometeorological processes,
the ability of existing hydrological and land-surface models to consider the complex interactions between land, snow, ice, hydrology and atmospheres, and the ability of these models to consider the impact of climate change on high latitude hydrological systems.

J16

Remote Sensing – Use of Products in Cryospheric, Atmospheric and Oceanographic Investigations

Sponsoring Associations: IACS/IAMAS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Christian Haas (IACS), Stella Melo (IAMAS), Christian Haas (IAPSO)

Invited Speakers:

Roger DeAbreu, Canadian Ice Service, Ottawa, Canada

C. T. McElroy, Environment Canada

Ted Scambos, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA
Roger Marchand, Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, USA

Description:

The cryosphere, atmosphere, and oceans are key elements of the global climate system, and show strong evidence of the present rapid climate change. Satellite data play an important role in their observation, as they provide global measurements with high temporal sampling. We invite presentations demonstrating the potential and power of satellite data for observations and modelling of recent, climate-related changes in the cryosphere, atmosphere, and oceans.

J17

Monsoon Observations, Modelling and Prediction

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Takehiko Satomura (IAMAS), Jianping Li (IAMAS), Jay McCreary (IAPSO)

Invited Speakers:

Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA

Gabriel. A. Vecchi, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA

Behera Swadhin, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

DongXiao Wang, South China Sea Institute, China

Description:

The scientific importance of the monsoons cannot be overemphasized. They impact climate, both regionally and globally, and interact with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modes of climate variability. They involve complex multi-scale interactions among the Earth's atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere, and biosphere, including human activities (land use/cover, atmospheric composition, aerosols, etc.). Furthermore, the economies of many countries in monsoon regions are strongly impacted by monsoon-related droughts and floods. Future change in the monsoon climate is also of the greatest concern to the world economy and to sustainable development. A number of monsoon experiments have been carried out recently to understand monsoon physics.

They include the SCSMEX, GAME, NAME, MESA, AMMA, projects, which have been carried out or are currently underway. In addition, the Asian Monsoon Years (AMY 2007-2012) and International Monsoon Study (IMS, 2008-2012) are new WCRP initiatives to study the monsoon, and their first intensified observation periods (IOPs) will have just finished by the time of the Montreal 2009 Joint Assembly. Therefore, this joint symposium provides an excellent opportunity for scientists to present new outcomes on interactive monsoon systems from the most recent experiments.

The symposium will be focused on the following topics:

The effects of interactions among atmosphere, ocean, land surface, cryosphere, and biosphere, including human activities, on monsoons
The characteristics and mechanisms of monsoon variability at different time scales, and monsoon predictability and prediction
Initial results from the IOPs of IMY and AMY and the latest advances from SCSMEX, GAME, NAME, MESA and AMMA

Other monsoon related topics are also welcome. Observational, modelling and theoretical studies are all encouraged.

J18

Natural Hazards (Atmosphere, Ocean and Ice)

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IACS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Uwe Ulbrich (IAMAS), Jean Palutikov (IAMAS), Andreas Kääb (IACS), Richard E. Thomson (IAPSO)

Invited Speaker:

Description:

Understanding and forewarning of natural hazards are among the most important challenges facing the world community. Hazards associated with natural causes can have major impacts on human health, economy and political stability. This session will examine natural hazards originating from processes in the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere, including those generated on land (e.g. coastal and hydrological hazards), the seafloor, and in the biospheres. The session will provide an understanding of the spatial and temporal conditions that lead to hazard occurrence, and the assessment of risk under past, present and future climate conditions. Presentations exploring hazard predictability and long-term forecasting are invited, as are those directed toward hazard severity and resulting impacts on natural and human systems, such as security and the economy. While contributions should have a natural sciences perspective, submissions dealing with interdisciplinary work are strongly encouraged. The session will also consider early warning and adaptation strategies that emerge from the natural sciences, including those that deal with climate change.
Studies are sought which investigate hazards due to extreme climatic events as well as those that arise from combinations of natural factors that eventually lead to serious consequences despite the absence of parametric extremes. Presentations that examine damage producing mechanisms, or associated damage augmentation factors like duration and preconditioning, are also welcome.

J19

Tropical Cyclones

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IAPSO

Convenors:

Roger K. Smith (IAMAS), Michael Montgomery (IAMAS), Fumin Ren (IAMAS), Liguang Wu (IAPSO)

Invited Speakers:

Noel Davidson, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

Tom Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, New Jersey, USA

Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, California, USA

Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, University of Miami, Florida, USA

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan

Description:

Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems on the planet and are awe-inspiring coherent vortex structures. We do not yet fully understand the processes that determine their development and movement to the extent that their properties can be forecasted with precision over a time scale of several days. Research papers are solicited on all aspects of tropical cyclones, especially those concerned with the fundamental dynamical and thermodynamical processes involved as well as the genesis, intensification, movement, and impacts. Papers are especially encouraged on the processes concerned with changes of tropical cyclone activity in a warming climate.

J20

Atmospheres and Ices of Terrestrial Planets

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IACS

Convenors:

Dimitri Titov (IAMAS), Athéna Coustenis (IAMAS), Ralf Greve (IACS), Kathryn E. Fishbaugh (IACS), Christine Schott Hvidberg (IACS)

Invited Speakers:

R. Orosei, IFSI, Rome, Italy

H. Vali, McGill University, Canada

Ernst Hauber, DLR-Institute of Planetary Research, Berlin, Germany
David Grinspoon, Denver Museum of Nature & Science, USA

Description:

Papers are invited on the physics and chemistry of the lower, middle and upper atmosphere, ionosphere and surface ices of the inner planets and comets. Comparative studies of the atmospheres of Venus, Earth and Mars, as well as the ices on Earth and Mars, are also invited, with emphasis on the differences and similarities in their climates. Results from recent missions to Mars, Venus and the terrestrial planets in general are of particular interest. Reports on improvements in general circulation models of the thermosphere and lower atmospheres of the planets, coupled atmosphere/cryosphere models and descriptions of future planetary missions are also invited, as well as advances in laboratory experiments.

J21

Advances in Data Assimilation for Earth System Science

Sponsoring Associations: IAMAS/IACS/APSO

Convenors:

Richard Swinbank (IAMAS), Mu Mu (IAMAS), William Lahoz (IAMAS) Andrew Roberts (IACS), Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli (IAPSO)

Invited Speakers:

Laurent Bertino, NERSC, Norway

Hendrik Elbern , Universität zu Köln, Germany

Pierre Gauthier, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), Canada

Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland, USA

Pierre Lermusiaux, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA

Zhiyong Meng, Peking University, China

Saroja Polavarapu, Environment Canada, Canada

Mark Buehner, Environment Canada, Canada

Description:

Data Assimilation is a key technique in Earth Science, allowing the exploitation of the vast quantity of measurements of the Earth System. Data assimilation can organise the wealth of data from both satellite and in situ platforms to analyse the current and past state of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere and form the basis of improved forecasts from the meso to the global scale. The session will bring together scientists working across a broad range of subject areas; particular topics will include:

advanced assimilation methods, including variational and ensemble-based approaches;
improved use of observations: adaptive observing methods, calculation of observation sensitivities, observing system experiments and observing system simulation experiments, and validation metrics;
assimilation of data from new satellite instruments, such as COSMIC, CloudSat, IASI, OCO and ADM Aeolus;
applications to weather and climate prediction, oceanography, mesoscale and cloud-scale processes, atmospheric chemistry, the middle atmosphere and the cryosphere.

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